2016 Las Vegas Stock Recap

With the calendar now showing January 2017, let's take a look back and see how Las Vegas stocks did in 2016.

The big three Las Vegas stocks - MGM Resorts International, Wynn Resorts, and Las Vegas Sands all had good years increasing by more than 20% each. The companies rode the wave of a recovering Macau market combined with strong non-gaming Las Vegas metrics.

In Macau Wynn Palace opened on the Cotai Strip in August. Sands opened The Parisian a few weeks later in in September. Meanwhile in the United States MGM National Harbor near Washington DC was opened in December to capacity crowds.

Caesars Entertainment stock finished the year up just over 7%. Caesars is still involved in seemingly never-ending bankruptcy litigation, but the stock could have some speculation value if they are able to escape bankruptcy with most of the company still in-tact.

Regional operators Boyd Gaming and Penn National didn't fare as well as their international counterparts. Boyd was up a slight 1.5% as they integrated their new Aliante and Cannery acquisitions. Penn was down 13.9% perhaps negatively affected by the anticipated opening of MGM National Harbor stealing business from their Charles Town property.

2016 Las Vegas stock results: (not including dividends)

Company	Symbol	Start	End	Change
MGM	MGM	22.72	28.83	+26.9%
Wynn	WYNN	69.19	86.51	+25%
Sands	LVS	43.84	53.41	+21.8%
Caesars	CZR	7.89	8.50	+7.7%
Boyd	BYD	19.87	20.17	+1.5%
Penn	PENN	16.02	13.79	-13.9%

MGM Wynn and Caesars Talk Results

It was a bonanza of Las Vegas casino company earnings results today. MGM, Wynn, and Caesars all reported their first quarter 2016 results and held earnings conference calls.

MGM Resorts International focused on the Profit Growth Plan (PGP) during their conference call. PGP is the company's plan to increase profits by correcting inefficiencies in the operation. Examples would be consolidating linens and toiletries across all of the company's properties instead of using 14 different types. PGP is also the program responsible for MGM's upcoming parking garage fees. There wasn't much Las Vegas development news this time, but CEO Jim Murren further hinted at the upcoming re-branding of the Monte Carlo. He mentioned that the new Monte Carlo theater would host "A+ residency acts."

Steve Wynn spent much of the Wynn Resorts earnings call talking about the proposed Wynn Paradise Park development. Wynn mentioned that the lagoon coastline was already being expanded by 600 feet, and that zip-lines would be an available attraction. Wynn Paradise Park will have a 1000 room hotel with balcony rooms facing the lagoon and fireworks show. Steve Wynn thinks these balcony rooms will be the most sought-after in all of Las Vegas.

Caesars Entertainment held their earnings conference call at the same time as Wynn's. I guess when you're going through a bankruptcy you want as little attention as possible - and it worked since only one analyst asked a question in the 30 minute call. Operationally, Caesars highlighted strong trends in occupancy and ADR due in part to room renovations. Caesars also talked about their new self service check-in kiosks. Entertainment and dining offerings were also seen as a positive, with In-N-Out Burger coming to the Linq Promenade being the most exciting.

Self check-in Kiosks at Caesars Properties

A recent LA Times article pointed out that several Caesars Entertainment properties have introduced self-check-in kiosks at their Las Vegas hotels.

The article praises the kiosks as a fast way to get into your room after a long day of traveling.

While this is a good point, and I generally enjoy using self-service kiosks (Alamo is my car rental agency of choice partially because they have kiosks) I'm a little wary of kiosks at hotels.

When you're in Las Vegas there are so many different room type options to choose from. Being able to schmooze the front desk agent (often with a $20 bill) can be your key to getting a better room.

With a kiosk I'm guessing your options will be limited. The kiosk will probably offer you an upgrade, but it will likely cost you much more than a single $20 bill. Also if you have a specific request or area of the hotel that you prefer - a kiosk might be less accommodating than an actual person.

We'll have to see if these kiosks catch on to the point of replacing front desk clerks entirely. That seems like a possible scenario, but I think the person-to-person interaction of a live desk clerk will still be an available option for the foreseeable future.

November 2015 Las Vegas Stock Recap

With the calendar now showing December 2015, let's take a look back and see how Las Vegas stocks did in the month of November.

After a blazing hot October for Las Vegas stocks, they came back down to earth a little bit in November.

Caesars Entertainment was the only stock finishing up in November, inching up a little over 5% after soaring over 36% in October.

MGM Resorts International and Boyd Gaming were relatively flat in October, both declining slightly.

Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands both were both down a little over 10% in November after both had a strong October. Some issues in Macau continue to weigh on these two operators.

Penn National was down almost 11% in November, after having the weakest performance of all the Las Vegas stocks in October. I'm guessing their master lease accounting issues could have hurt their stock price recently.

Company	Symbol	Start	End	Change
Caesars	CZR	8.05	8.47	+5.22%
MGM	MGM	23.19	22.74	-1.94%
Boyd	BYD	19.99	19.59	-2%
Wynn	WYNN	69.95	62.77	-10.26%
Penn	PENN	17.86	15.95	-10.69%
Sands	LVS	49.51	44.06	-11%

Marriott to Acquire Starwood Hotels and Resorts

Marriott International announced today their intention to acquire Starwood Hotels and Resorts. If the deal goes through it would create the world's largest hotel company, controlling over 1.1 million rooms.

Starwood currently has an affiliation with the Caesars Entertainment properties on the Strip, and recently signed a deal to convert one of the towers at SLS into a W Hotel.

Marriott has an agreement with Cosmopolitan, although it has been rumored that will be replaced with Hilton due to Cosmopolitan's recent sale to Blackstone.

I personally don't have a vested interest in either one of these loyalty programs, but from what I'm reading it appears that Starwood customers are worried about having their points devalued by Marriott.

Fontainebleau For Sale - Who Will Buy?

The Wall Street Journal reported today that Carl Icahn is looking to sell the Fontainebleau. The property will be listed by CBRE for $650 million.

I immediately starting thinking about who might be a candidate to buy and finish the stalled Fontainebleau project. I'm going to spend the rest of this blog post speculating about which companies might be in the mix.

MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment are the two largest Las Vegas hotel/casino companies but neither of them are really looking to expand in Vegas at the moment. Plus MGM will be completing a REIT conversion soon, and Caesars is going through a partial bankruptcy. I don't see either of these giants buying Fontainebleau.

Wynn Resorts boss Steve Wynn has long said he doesn't want to build in Las Vegas again. His frustration with the Macau government and endless headaches getting his Boston project off the ground might have him singing a different tune though. The rub: Wynn likes to build from scratch and the Fontainebleau structure might not be a blank enough slate for architect DeRuyter Butler and designer Roger Thomas to work their magic.

Like Wynn, Las Vegas Sands and Sheldon Adelson have shown a lack of interest in building anything new in Vegas. I actually think the Fontainebleau would be a great fit though. LVS has deep pockets so finishing the resort wouldn't be a problem, and the location near the planned convention center expansion would fit right in with their convention heavy business model. The best part: They could call the property Sands Hotel and Casino resurrecting an iconic Las Vegas brand.

Speaking of iconic properties: Boyd Gaming has been looking to get back on the Strip ever since they demolished The Stardust and failed to replace it with Echelon Place, later selling the property. While I would be in favor of Boyd buying Fontainebleau and renaming it The Stardust (or Borgata Las Vegas perhaps?) it seems unlikely they would undertake such a large project so shortly after abandoning Echelon.

Penn National was seriously considering purchasing Fontainebleau before ultimately losing out to Carl Icahn. Since then they have entered the Las Vegas market with purchases of M Resort and later Tropicana. If Penn was unwilling to spend $150 million to buy Fontainebleau in 2010 I'm guessing they don't want to spend $650 million in 2015.

Treasure Island owner Phil Ruffin was in the news earlier this week as it was reported he made a recent $1.3 billion failed bid to buy The Mirage. If Ruffin has that much cash to spend could he possibly want to buy the Fontainebleau? It seems like a real possibility to me.

Other regional operators like Eldorado Resorts, Golden Entertainment, Full House Resorts, and Pinnacle Entertainment are likely eager to get into the Las Vegas market but probably don't have the money to make a deal like Fontainebleau happen. Could one of these companies partner up with a rich benefactor like Ruffin to get it done?

Lastly and perhaps most likely to buy Fontainebleau are private equity real estate companies. Cosmopolitan parent company Blackstone might be a possibility if they are looking to expand their casino holdings. Once rumored Mirage buyer Starwood Capital might also be looking to buy.

Caesars Upgrading Las Vegas Room Product

For years Caesars Entertainment has had a reputation for not maintaining their properties. While most Strip properties had routine room updates, Caesars seemed to take the approach of deferring maintenance to save money.

This provided some great room rates for budget travelers, but from a company perspective Caesars was hurting themselves by not being able to charge more for nicer room offerings.

This might be changing though. On the latest Caesars Entertainment earnings conference call yesterday new CEO Mark Frissora talked about being able to achieve higher average daily room rates by improving their properties.

Indeed Caesars has already taken steps to upgrade Las Vegas hotel rooms with the upcoming Julius Tower at Caesars Palace, new suites at Paris, upgraded rooms in the Carnival Tower at Harrah's, and refreshed Hollywood Hip rooms and suites at Planet Hollywood.

This follows some other improvements at Caesars properties including the complete overhauls at The Cromwell and The Linq, along with new hotel rooms at the Bally's Jubilee Tower and the Rio Samba Suites.

If Caesars continues to aggressively improve their room products it would give Las Vegas travelers many more options for a nicer hotel room closer to the center of the Strip.

Caesars Loses Rock Ohio Management

Caesars Entertainment will no longer manage three Ohio properties starting in 2016.

Rock Gaming announced in a press release that Horseshoe Cleveland, Horseshoe Cincinnati and ThistleDown will all be self managed by Rock next year, cutting ties with Caesars.

As part of the transition the properties will be renamed, and they will no longer be part of Total Rewards. A new loyalty program will replace it but that wont help people looking to build up comps for a trip to Las Vegas.

Many people have wondered if Horseshoe Baltimore will also transition, as Rock has an ownership stake in that property as well.

I think it's a long-shot since Caesars Growth Partners is the largest owner of Horseshoe Baltimore. It's unlikely that Rock, a smaller owner would be able to push them out unless Caesars wanted to sell.

October 2015 Las Vegas Stock Recap

With the calendar now showing November 2015, let's take a look back and see how Las Vegas stocks did in the month of October.

October turned out to be an amazing month for Las Vegas stock returns with every stock I track finishing green, and 5 out of the 6 finishing up by more than 20%.

Caesars Entertainment has been on a wild bankruptcy fueled roller coaster ride. After soaring an incredible 83.3% in August they came crashing back down to earth in September falling 38.32% only to turn it around again in October jumping up 36.67%.

Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands both were up big in October after declining significantly in September. While Steve Wynn was angry at the Macau government during Wynn's earnings call, Sheldon Aldelson was nothing but respectful.

MGM Resorts International had a 25% gain in October highlighted by the news that they are creating a REIT called MGM Growth Properties.

Boyd Gaming rode the downtown Las Vegas success wave with their stock increasing almost 22% in October.

Penn National was "only" up 6.4% in October. I'm guessing their limited exposure to Las Vegas compared to the other stocks kept them form having the same explosive October results.

Company	Symbol	Start	End	Change
Caesars	CZR	5.89	8.05	+36.67%
Wynn	WYNN	53.12	69.95	+31.68%
Sands	LVS	37.95	49.51	+30.46%
MGM	MGM	18.45	23.19	+25.69%
Boyd	BYD	16.30	19.99	+21.96%
Penn	PENN	16.78	17.86	+6.44%

Gaming Roundup - Studio City Macau Opens

Studio City in Macau has opened. The 3 plus billion dollar hotel designed in part to bring more non-gaming amenities to Macau features a batman ride and a figure eight ferris wheel in the middle of the building.

Studio City should be a good barometer of how non-gaming attractions do in the Macau market, especially since the government only granted them 250 tables.

Next door to Studio City on the Cotai Strip is The Parisian. The 2.7 billion dollar Las Vegas Sands owned hotel and casino will open in late 2016 or early 2017. It was originally planned for a spring 2016 opening so it's being pushed back a bit.

Back here stateside Caesars Entertainment is halfheartedly trying to sell their bankrupt CEOC unit, but it appears there aren't any bidders likely because Total Rewards would be excluded from the transaction.

Boyd Gaming, Penn National, and Eldorado Resorts all reported earnings within the past few days. All three locals operators seem to be doing well growing EBITDA, but I like net income better which seems to be hard to come by.

September 2015 Las Vegas Stock Recap

With the calendar now showing October 2015, let's take a look back and see how Las Vegas stocks did in the month of September.

Boyd Gaming was the only stock I track that was up in September. It's performance was likely buoyed by strong trends in downtown and the Las Vegas locals market.

Penn National was brought down by the rest of the sector, but since they don't have any international exposure they weren't down as much as the others.

MGM Resorts International was down almost ten percent. Their exciting upcoming projects including the Las Vegas Arena and The Park were overshadowed by their exposure to Macau, which was weak.

Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts both declined significantly again in September. Along with general softness in Macau, reports of troubles in the high end junket market has sent these two stocks into a tailspin.

Caesars Entertainment was the big winner in August soaring an incredible 83.3%. They came crashing back down to earth in September though falling 38.32%. The Caesars bankruptcy proceedings are very uncertain at this point, and it looks like investors are becoming less certain of a turnaround.

Company	Symbol	Start	End	Change
Boyd	BYD	16.10	16.30	+1.24%
Penn	PENN	18.16	16.78	-7.60%
MGM	MGM	20.43	18.45	-9.69%
Sands	LVS	46.23	37.95	-17.91%
Wynn	WYNN	75.05	53.12	-29.22%
Caesars	CZR	9.55	5.89	-38.32%

August 2015 Las Vegas Stock Recap

With the calendar now showing September 2015, let's take a look back and see how Las Vegas stocks did in the month of August.

Caesars Entertainment was the big winner in August soaring an incredible 83.3%. They had a strong earnings report combined with some positive bankruptcy news. Caesars stock is highly speculative given their possible bankruptcy, but those willing to gamble reaped the rewards in August.

MGM Resorts International also reported solid earnings, and their stock was up on the news that they are strongly considering a REIT conversion.

Penn National officially became the owners of the Tropicana, but their stock was down slightly in August. Fellow regional player Boyd Gaming was also down.

Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts both declined significantly in August as they were affected by the Chinese stock market.

Company	Symbol	Start	End	Change
Caesars	CZR	5.21	9.55	+83.30%
MGM	MGM	19.62	20.43	+4.13%
Penn	PENN	19.08	18.16	-4.82%
Boyd	BYD	17.09	16.10	-5.79%
Sands	LVS	56.04	46.23	-17.51%
Wynn	WYNN	103.23	75.05	-27.30%

Las Vegas Stocks Fall in Global Selloff

In what has been dubbed on Twitter as Black Monday - stocks were down in a big way today as China fears caused a global selloff. The Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all fell by more than 3.5% on the day.

The big Las Vegas stocks were hard hit as they rely on the China economy in their Macau operations. Wynn Resorts fell almost 6.5%, MGM Resorts International was down 5% and Las Vegas Sands was off by 4%.

Even the regional gaming companies without China operations were affected by the selloff. Boyd Gaming was down by 3.3% and Penn National fell by just over 2.5%.

Caesars Entertainment bucked the trend however as they were up almost 12% on favorable bankruptcy news and good Atlantic City numbers. The fact that Caesars doesn't have any Macau operations also probably helped on this particular day.

Company	Symbol	Open	Close	Change
Caesars	CZR	8.02	8.98	+11.97%
Penn	PENN	17.69	17.20	-2.55%
Boyd	BYD	16.03	15.50	-3.31%
Sands	LVS	47.99	46.05	-4.04%
MGM	MGM	20.59	19.54	-5.10%
Wynn	WYNN	81.77	76.48	-6.47%%

Bally's Grand Bazaar Shops

I haven't had a chance to share my thoughts about the Bally's Grand Bazaar Shops on this blog. With many of the shops opening, now seems like a good time.

Bally's is located pretty far off the Strip in terms of walking distance. For years to reach the casino you would travel up a long moving walkway, and then up and down a series of escalators. Pretty inefficient.

The large amount of space between the Strip and the entrance presented an opportunity for Bally's parent company Caesars Entertainment to build something productive. With retail being hot right now, and an easy way to make money by simply renting space out to tenants - the decision was made to develop the Grand Bazaar Shops.

The area has been open for a couple of months, but it seems like tenants are just now starting to open. One of the anchors is a Starbucks with stadium style seating for people watching. Fuel Bar and Garage has flair bartenders along with the "garage" game-room with beer pong, pool and even basketball. There's also a hot sauce shop that I'll probably have to check out.

The shops have been widely criticized across the internet for being tacky, flea-market-like, and an eyesore. I can't exactly disagree with any of these sentiments, but I'm probably more open minded than most comment section participants.

From what I've seen the layout just seems odd. I understand that Bally's isn't a luxury property, but I think Caesars could have made this area into a nicer space - similar to what they did with The Linq and what MGM is doing with The Park.

The saving grace might be the free attractions at the shops:

Nightly Light Show:
Experience the unique hexagonal LED rooftop canopy, designed just for Grand Bazaar Shops, featuring an energetic light show set to custom-created themed soundtracks.

Swarovski Midnight Celebration:
Central to the Grand Bazaar Shops’ experience is the Swarovski Crystal Starburst. The Starburst soars above Grand Bazaar Shops’ colorful, mosaic-pattern rooftop canopy and is the star of the nightly Swarovski Midnight Celebration, a brilliantly colored light, music and video spectacle.

I'm guessing neither of these will become the next Bellagio fountains or Mirage volcano, but in a time where free attractions are going away, it's nice to have them as an option. I really liked the old Bally's moving walkway light show, so I have a feeling I might end up liking this one as well.

New Caesars CEO Mark Frissora

Caesars Entertainment reported second quarter earnings earlier this week. By all accounts it was a good quarter. The stock was up 9.7% the day after the earnings release, and another 10.6% the next day.

Revenue increased 17.4% year-over-year "mainly due to strong performance at Caesars Interactive Entertainment ("CIE"), the openings of Horseshoe Baltimore and The Cromwell, the renovation of The LINQ Hotel & Casino and continued growth in hospitality amenities in Las Vegas."

Those numbers don't include the bankrupt subsidiary CEOC - so it's hard to have a direct year over year comparison, but strong Las Vegas results seem to go along with recent trends reported by the other gaming companies.

The general fate of Caesars Entertainment seems to hinge on whether the parent company will be able to avoid bankruptcy by negotiating with creditors. Forbes had an article today breaking down those possibilities.

Mark Frissora is the new President and CEO of Caesars Entertainment. He spoke to investors for the first time on the second quarter earnings conference call. I was looking forward to hearing what Frissora had to say, but he pretty much stuck to the script and didn't provide much commentary outside of the official company statements.

July 2015 Las Vegas Stock Recap

With the calendar now showing August 2015, let's take a look back and see how Las Vegas stocks did in the month of July.

Boyd Gaming increased by almost 15 percent as the company reported strong second quarter earnings.

MGM Resorts International had a very eventful July. They first sold Circus Circus Reno and Silver Legacy to Eldorado Resorts. Then came the news that showtimes were being cut at the Mirage Volcano. The bombshell came when it was reported The Mirage was sold to Starwood Capital. All of this resulted in a 7.5 percent increase to the stock price. It should get even more interesting when MGM reports earnings next week.

Las Vegas Sands reported strong Las Vegas trends in the face of a stabilizing Macau market.

Wynn Resorts stock was up almost five percent on their second quarter earnings report. The earnings conference call got interesting as Steve Wynn talked about lowering craps odds to 2X.

Penn National had another good month, up almost four percent. Along with reporting strong earnings, Penn has plans for the Tropicana which could include the potential for a new hotel tower in the future.

July was a roller coaster ride for Caesars Entertainment. The month started out with Gary Loveman officially being replaced as CEO by Mark Frissora. Later in the month the company's stock jumped up 22% in one day on positive bankruptcy news only to fall 40% the very next day on negative news. The end result was the stock down fifteen percent in July. Next week could be even more volatile as Caesars reports earnings and Frissora has his first conference call.

Company	Symbol	Start	End	Change
Boyd	BYD	14.95	17.09	+14.31%
MGM	MGM	18.25	19.62	+7.51%
Sands	LVS	52.57	56.04	+6.6%
Wynn	WYNN	98.67	103.23	+4.62%
Penn	PENN	18.35	19.08	+3.98%
Caesars	CZR	6.12	5.21	-14.87%

Caesars Avoiding Bankruptcy

Caesars Entertainment and their subsidiary Caesars Entertainment Operating Company (CEOC) have reached a preliminary debt restructuring agreement with some of their creditors.

CEOC is already in bankruptcy, and this agreement is a step towards preventing the parent company Caesars Entertainment from sliding into bankruptcy as well.

Caesars already has a restructuring plan in place which calls for the company's real estate to be split off into a REIT, but needs creditors to agree to the plan in order to proceed. This latest agreement gives creditors more incentives than Caesars was offering before.

The whole thing is very confusing, but it looks like the Caesars Entertainment parent company will likely avoid bankruptcy. Wall Street certainly thinks so, as Caesars stock was up $1.47 to $8.02 (+22.44%) today on the news.

UPDATE: July 22, 2015 - What a difference a day makes. Yesterday Caesars was up 22% on positive bankruptcy news. Today it received a negative bankruptcy ruling and the stock plunged a whopping 40% all the way down to $4.76 a share.

My note yesterday of "it looks like the Caesars Entertainment parent company will likely avoid bankruptcy" looks to be outdated already, and bankruptcy for the parent company seems like a real possibility now. My guess is that Caesars will continue negotiations with creditors to avoid bankruptcy but we shall see.

Gary Loveman out at Caesars Entertainment

July 1, 2015 marked the end of an era for Caesars Entertainment as CEO Gary Loveman stepped down and new CEO Mark Frissora took over. Loveman will stay on as the company’s chairman.

It's been a rough few years for Loveman as the company has slid into a partial bankruptcy, but was it his fault?

Las Vegas fans love to pile on Loveman for not maintaining properties, and buying new hotels when the company didn't necessarily have the money (Planet Hollywood). Las Vegas wasn't actually the problem though.

The real problems for Caesars were:

Not being in Macau: During the economic downturn the other Las Vegas companies were able to lean on the success in Macau to help stem the tide in Las Vegas. Caesars didn't have that luxury.

Atlantic City and regional weakness: Having many properties all over the country was a blessing during boom times, but it was a curse during the downturn as Atlantic City and other regional markets got crushed. Caesars had to take the brunt of this unlike the other big Las Vegas companies.

No one will feel sorry for Gary Loveman and his golden parachute, but he was facing some unique obstacles that were tough to overcome.

While people criticize what he did in Las Vegas, The Linq and The Cromwell turned out to be good remodels, and the High Roller will definitely be a staple on the Vegas skyline for years to come.

June 2015 Las Vegas Stock Recap

With the calendar now showing July 2015, let's take a look back and see how Las Vegas stocks did in the month of June.

Penn National had a good month, up 10%. The Tropicana's new owners experienced strong regional gaming, especially at their new Massachusetts property.

Boyd experienced a slight uptick as the Las Vegas locals market shows some signs of improvement.

Las Vegas Sands was up slightly despite an uncertain Macau market, which sent Wynn Resorts down slightly.

MGM Resorts International dropped almost 9%, in part because of the death of Kirk Kerkorian, and the news that his estate will be selling off their stake in the company.

The big loser in June was Caesars Entertainment, down almost 35% on bankruptcy fears.

Company	Symbol	Start	End	Change
Penn	PENN	16.63	18.35	+10.34%
Boyd	BYD	14.31	14.95	+4.47%
Sands	LVS	50.83	52.57	+3.42%
Wynn	WYNN	100.69	98.67	-2.01%
MGM	MGM	20.05	18.25	-8.98%
Caesars	CZR	9.36	6.12	-34.62%

Caesars Fortune Article

Anyone interested in the business side of Las Vegas should read the article A private equity gamble in Vegas gone wrong by William D. Cohan. In addition to being available online, the article will be in the June 15, 2015 issue of Fortune magazine with the headline Losing Las Vegas.

The article chronicles the misfortune of Caesars Entertainment, which is currently going through a partial bankruptcy.

Gary Loveman was instrumental in the growth of Caesars (then Harrah's). He was able to grow the company by using math to perfect the Total Rewards loyalty program. At the top of the market the company was taken private, saddling the company with a large amount of debt. With the economy crashing around 2008 the debt load was too large to handle, leading Caesars into a downward spiral they are still trying to fight their way out of.